Rigs and Spreads Oct. 26: Mostly moving sideways

  • Oil rigs were up marginally this week, +2 to 875

  • Horizontal oil rigs gained, +1 at 773

  • The 4 wma change for horizontal oil rigs fell to +1.25 / week

  • Frac spreads rose 2 to 472

  • In another two weeks or so, frac spreads should have returned to their normalized ratio with horizontal oil rigs, that is, frac spreads should continue to increase by 2-4 / week, with horizontal oil rigs gaining 0-2 / week through mid-November.

  • Overall, the underlying takeaway is unchanged: Under $70 / barrel WTI, the US horizontal oil rig count is unlikely to materially increase 

  • Therefore, if shales under-perform – as the EIA weekly data (below) suggest  is possible – oil prices will have to seek a higher level, say $80+ / barrel WTI by mid-year 2019, to revive rig additions and stimulate production growth.

Rigs and Spreads Oct 26