If you spend your time, as I do, advising hedge funds and investors on oil prices, you'll quickly discover a host of problematic episodes in the historical record and a significant lack of tools to address daily price forecasting challenges.
For some of these, I have developed tools, if not theory. Others I have merely identified as topics which we know are important but for which we have no convincing model at present.
I'll be speaking on these topics at the US Energy Economists Association Conference Oct. 25-28, 2015 in Pittsburgh.
I'll use the framework below to discuss recent price movements, and will refer to historical events as time allows.
Brent Oil Prices and Various Industry Forecasts